{"id":5875,"date":"2026-10-30T09:10:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T22:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.strawman.com\/blog\/the-ai-genie-is-out-of-the-bottle\/"},"modified":"2026-10-30T09:10:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T22:40:13","slug":"the-ai-genie-is-out-of-the-bottle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.strawman.com\/blog\/the-ai-genie-is-out-of-the-bottle\/","title":{"rendered":"The AI genie is out of the bottle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">If you&#8217;ve been even half paying attention, you&#8217;ll know that the AI genie is well and truly out of the bottle. Even if the state of the art plateaus from here, this tech is already good enough that it will rewrite how business works, and how we as investors operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some of that is exciting, some of it is unsettling, and plenty of people are already sick of hearing about it. But given the pace of change and the potential for AI to upend entire industries, we just can&#8217;t afford to look away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How it all lands is anyone&#8217;s guess. So the following is just a few musings more than high-conviction calls. But hopefully worth kicking around to at least try and get ahead of the curve, if only just a little bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Broadly, there are two angles: how we use the technology as investors, and how the businesses we own adapt to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our session earlier this week showed just how fast the research side is moving. The efficiency gains are staggering. When anyone can point institutional-grade analysis at a company in seconds, obvious mispricings might get a lot rarer. It reminds me of Ben Graham&#8217;s net-nets. Those statistical bargains largely evaporated once everyone had a stock screener. Beating the market was already tough, and this makes it tougher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then again, these models are trained on humans and driven by humans. They amplify our knowledge, but maybe they amplify our flaws too. If thousands of investors lean on the same models and never bother reading the actual filings, a false narrative can take hold faster than ever. Hand the sharpest tool ever built to greedy, skittish, impatient people and you just get more greed, impatience and knee-jerk reactions. In that kind of market, independent thinking is worth more than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mikebrisy put it well during our chat. Treat AI like a razor-sharp graduate fresh out of business school. It&#8217;ll happily tear through mountains of data, but you still have to frame the question, set the direction and cross-examine what comes back. Use it to save time, and keep the thinking and judgement for yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I definitely think patience remains a real edge. Impatient investors will use fast tools to do silly things more quickly, trading more and waiting less. As Charlie Munger liked to say, the big money is in the waiting. If you can build a sensible thesis and then sit on your hands for three or four years while it plays out, you&#8217;ve got a big advantage over those with agents handing them all manner of clever trading opportunities every 5 minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trickiest part will be forecasting earnings more than a couple of years out. If your valuation hinges on cash flows eight or ten years down the track, that&#8217;s a giant leap of faith. The world is moving far too quickly to have much confidence in what a business will earn in three years, let alone ten. Any thesis that leans heavily on a distant terminal value deserves a healthy dose of scepticism (something that quite a few tech companies are already discovering).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the business side, I&#8217;d be wary of any management team dragging its feet. It feels like the turn of the century all over again, when retailers and media companies dismissed the internet as an interesting toy. Some incumbents will watch their fat moats shrink against lean newcomers with next to no overheads. A few will need to follow Jeff Bezos&#8217; playbook and cannibalise their own revenue before a competitor does it for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taking a hit to margins hurts but irrelevance is fatal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s also worth watching how companies cater to AI agents. Businesses will need to service bots as well as people, and websites that make life hard for automated visitors will quickly drop out of the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That upends the economics of the web, by the way, where whole industries depend on eyeballs and advertising. When most traffic is API calls, that model falls over. My hunch is we&#8217;ll eventually shift to streaming micro-payments. At a tenth of a cent per email, an ordinary user never notices, but spammers go broke overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, as mentioned previously, once writing software is fully commoditised, the code itself offers no protection. If anyone can replicate your product in an afternoon, your moat has to come from the data you own and the network effects that keep customers locked in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Importantly, this all calls for some intellectual humility. Hold strong opinions loosely, stay open to strange new developments without chasing every shiny fad, and be willing to ditch a favourite mental model the moment the facts turn against it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s where the value of the Strawman community has always been, but I suspect that\u2019s now more important than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Either way, it&#8217;ll be a wild ride. Strap in!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-very-dark-gray-color has-very-light-gray-background-color has-text-color has-background has-normal-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club. <br>Members share research &amp; recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe48e5de wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-very-light-gray-color has-tertiary-background-color has-text-color has-background has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/signup\"> Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a9 2026 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">| <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strawman.com\/landing\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.strawman.com\/landing\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> |<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you&#8217;ve been even half paying attention, you&#8217;ll know that the AI genie is well and truly out of the bottle. Even if the state of the art plateaus from here, this tech is already good enough that it will rewrite how business works, and how we as investors operate. Some of that is exciting, some of it is unsettling, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5874,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The AI genie is out of the bottle - Strawman Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.strawman.com\/blog\/the-ai-genie-is-out-of-the-bottle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The AI genie is out of the bottle - Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If you&#8217;ve been even half paying attention, you&#8217;ll know that the AI genie is well and truly out of the bottle. 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