Forum Topics Gold as an investment
Bear77
4 weeks ago

17-April-2024: It's been a coupla weeks...

This table caught my attention in the Money of Mine's Monday (15th April 2024) podcast video which I was re-watching this afternoon:

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Source: Panic at Gold Road – Right or Wrong? | Daily Mining Show (youtube.com) [15-April-2024]

Now at that point in the poddy, JD was discussing the discounts available in the West African focused gold miners listed on the ASX - so Australian-listed and Australian-HQ'd gold miners whose mines are all in West Africa - those three shaded yellow - and he included the others for comparison. And, to be honest, as I've mentioned in this thread before, they interest me not very much at all. However, the multiples that the OTHER gold companies are trading at, is what DOES interest me. I have been interested in (but not yet invested in) Westgold (WGX) but WGX's announcement last Monday (last week) of their planned merger with TSX-listed Karora (KRR.tsx) - after the Karora-Ramelius (RMS.asx) merger talks clearly broke down - has made me stay firmly on the sidelines for now - I'm always wary of being invested in the acquirer of a large asset unless I can see a lot of clear reasons why the acquisition makes sense - and I remain unconvinced in this case - so far.

Further Reading: A New 400kozpa Australian Gold Producer [08-April-2024] and Merger-to-Create-400-kozpa-Australian-Gold-Miner.PDF [08-April-2024] and...

Money of Mine Podcast 02-April-2024: Who's Karora's mystery partner ; and

Money of Mine Podcast 08-April-2024: Westgold revealed as Karora's partner

So, yeah, nah, not interested at this point. Let's wait and see how that one pans out. Of those goldies on that list above (in that table), I do hold EMR and CMM here on Strawman, but none of them in real money portfolios any longer, having previously held and now sold out of CMM, EMR, RMS and GOR (today - see here for why).

Those are a sort of Peer Group list for WGX and Karora that JD put together, and my real-money exposures in the sector are not on that list, being NST, GMD and BGL, plus some pick and shovel plays like GNG, LYL, NWH and XRF, and another company who has one division that is assisted by gold sentiment being positive, Codan (CDA). I also hold all of those here on SM as well as a little bit of KIN (a small gold explorer with a history of finding decent deposits and then selling them), a very speculative position in M2M (a gamble, not an investment) and a VERY small position in PNR, just to keep them on my radar because I have managed to make money trading them in prior years and likely will again at some point.

But my main exposures are NST and GMD (Northern Star Resources and Genesis Minerals, both held in my two largest real money portfolios) and, to a lesser extent, Bellevue Gold (BGL) which I hold in my SMSF.

I have posted straws or forum posts about a few other gold miners here lately:

  • https://strawman.com/reports/SPR/Bear77?view-straw=25842 yesterday (16th April) on Spartan Resources (SPR) - formerly known as Gascoyne Resources - about their latest drilling results and their share price recovery over the past year;
  • Updated my Emerald Resources (EMR) "valuation" (price target) here (5 days ago), and added an extra forum post on their Board and Management's backgrounds here (on Saturday - 4 days ago);
  • Explained why I recently chose to exit (sell out of) Regis Resources (RRL) here;
  • Updated my Capricorn Metals (CMM) price target six days ago here; and
  • Also six days ago I added a straw titled "Onwards and Upwards" for Northern Star Resources (NST) that discusses their latest Operational Update (on 11-April-2024) and a little bit about why I like the company so much. Sometimes links to straws will take you to valuations instead, in which case just scroll down and the straw should be below the valuation.

So, yeah, I haven't been idle. Just not posting in this particular forum thread over the last couple of weeks.

BTW, I quit my afternoon shift job today, because the arthritis in my knees and hands has made the work too painful in the chilled food-prep environment (at the hommus and dips factory), so I may be spending even more time online, or not, we shall see. I certainly feel more positive in general about not having to go back there any more.

I wasn't planning to retire at 58, but it looks like I may have now. One thing I do know is that I will NOT get bored. Always plenty to do.

Here's another table I came across - not sure how accurate it is, but I imagine it's in the ball park:

8b86a33eecfc7791fd6dded7712a0c96ac0fd7.png

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264628/world-mine-production-of-gold/

The World Gold Council agrees that China produces more gold than Russia and Australia per year, but they put Russia ahead of Australia back in 2022:

ad9713a47ec47a09fbaeca5906b59526dda8f8.png

Source: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-production-by-country

Sources agree however that Australia either tied with Russia in 2023 or surpassed Russia and became the world's second largest gold producing country.

So now China, Australia, Russia, then Canada, then the USA.

And most western investors aren't looking to get exposure to gold through China, or Russia, so Australia and Canada are the premier stockmarkets for investors who want gold exposure through exposure to listed gold miners, so our Aussie gold miners are also looked at regularly and held often by international investors who want that exposure.

This applies particularly to our larger gold miners - like NST - which I do hold. Got to go cook some dinner for the fam' now. Ciao for now.

13
Bear77
a month ago

04-April-2024: Some in the Aussie Gold Sector are starting to move now:

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Not a bad day - but then... yesterday was 'orrible!

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The Aussie Gold Sector did reasonably well on both days, all things considered, and today, the US$ gold price was down a little and the Aussie Gold Sector still outperformed:

232ccf2f04184a6ffdac2eea51fe8d2ff71314.png

Well, the vast majority did well anyway, not Catalyst Metals (CYL, -6.12%) and Theta Gold Mines (TGM, -11.11%). Theta Gold Mines is trying to get a mine started in South Africa, but they reported zero income (no production, so no sales) in the December quarter, so they're still at the cashburn stage.

Catalyst Metals are in production at Henty, 23 kilometres from Queenstown in north western Tasmania, where their December quarter gold production was 5,306oz gold at an AISC of A$3,447/oz (Wow!!) and also at their Plutonic Gold Mine, 300 kilometres northeast of Meekatharra in the mid-west region of WA, where they reported 21,030oz gold sold at an AISC of A$2,713/oz in the December quarter (better, but not good). Catalyst's total gold sold for the quarter (across both mines) was 26,336oz at an average AISC of A$2,861. V. High Costs!

d41f93c6b0099f756022e060779ee291a07c9d.png

Source: https://catalystmetals.com.au/ and Quarterly-activities-report-Dec-2023-Qtr-CYL.PDF

See Also:

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0:39:26 CYL's potentional working capital challenges [Money of Mine podcast - 02-Apr-2024]


Here's today's price-sensitive Announcements:

Calidus Resources (CAI):

Production-continues-upward-trend-at-Warrawoona.PDF

Resources Rising Stars Presentation.PDF [Presented at 11:30am (ACDT) today - Thursday 04-Apr-2024 - at the Resources Rising Stars (RSS) Gather Round 2024 being held in Adelaide, South Australia, to coincide with the AFL Footy Gather Round, also in Adelaide]

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While CAI's SP rose +20.8% today, that was from a very low base, so they were up +2.5 cents to take them from 12 cps up to 14.5 cps, however they were trading at 29 cents/share (100% higher than their closing price today) a year ago on 12-Apr-2023.

Lachlan Star (LSA):

MI6-Further-high-grade-copper-gold-intercepts-at-Moora.PDF

While LSA's SP rose +16.3% today from 4.3 cps to 5 cps, they were trading at the equivalent of 12 cps in April last year, so 140% higher than today's closing price. LSA did a 1-for-10 share consolidation in October, which they called a "reverse stock split", so when looking at their historical share prices (i.e. when they were 1.1 to 1.2 cents/share in April 2023), you have to multiply that by 10 to get the equivalent value to today's shares. For instance, if you held 100,000 LSA shares in April 2023 that were trading at 1.2cps, that would be worth $1,200, and now you would own 10,000 LSA shares (because of the 1-for-10 share consolidation or reverse stock split in October) trading at 5 cps, worth $500, so they were worth 140% more 12 months ago. On LSA's SP chart, the prices pre-share-consolidation have been automatically adjusted to reflect the proper value relative to the current share structure..

Here's the 12 month share price graphs of CAI and LSA, today's best two share price performers:

2747d6de6edf2b417e3d8331fb78936496f8b9.png 4edfdca00da9e6c41ae31ea209e98744a748ed.png

Source: Commsec.

FireFly Metals (FFM):

Investor Presentation April 2024 - Resources Rising Stars.PDF [Presented at the Resources Rising Stars Gather Round 2024 in Adelaide today - Thursday 04-Apr-2024]

b5e89830b65d8179735cd13e598755ebeaa2d3.png

FireFly Metals (FFM, formerly AuTeco Minerals) continued:

Prospectus(FFM).PDF

Response-to-ASX-Query-regarding-leaked-info-to-AFR-concerning-CR-(FFM).PDF

Further Reading: Canadian gold play FireFly in $52m cash call (afr.com) [26-March-2024, this is the AFR article that the ASX sent FFM the Query Letter about - see previous link]

FFM hit an intraday 12-month high of 79.5 cps today, before closing at 76 cps, up +6.3% for the day.

Kin Mining (KIN):

RRS-Gather-Round-Presentation---4-April-2024(KIN).PDF

Also, yesterday (03-Apr-2024): Kin-to-Accelerate-Cardinia-Base-Metal-and-Gold-Exploration.PDF

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KIN is keen to show that their Cardinia project is surrounded by Genesis Minerals (GMD) assets, however it pays to note that Genesis bought everything they wanted that KIN owned at the time (Bruno-Lewis and Raeside) from KIN as announced in December (see here: Genesis to acquire two WA gold tenements from Kin Mining (mining-technology.com) [14-Dec-2023]) and that was all settled in early February, and what KIN are left with is what Genesis did not want. The market seems to have forgotten that, and KIN seem to be getting bid up as a nearology play or an M&A target.

KIN's SP was up +6% on Wednesday then another +5.7% on Thursday, so from 6.6 cps to 7.4 cps in two days (+12%), and they tagged 7.6 cps today (Thursday) which was a 12-month high for them. I added them to my Strawman.com portfolio here last week (March 26th) at 6.3 cps and they're up almost +17.5% in 9 days. I'll probably flip them soon, they're a trade, not an investment, for me anyway. I figured they might get even more self-promotional and with the gold price doing so well lately, it seemed like a good idea at the time. KIN are unlikely to use this 12-month high SP as the catalyst for a CR, because they're already cashed up from the recent asset sales to Genesis. But you never know...

26df01f44eab9eca6554bc046ba7bedde3f252.png 999ee7f6c629b65772dc781c8af62922925882.png

Source: Commsec.

Southern Cross Gold (SXG):

SXG-Announces-$1023-million-Fully-Underwritten-Rights-Issue.PDF

Non-Renounceable-Rights-Issue-Offer-Booklet(SXG).PDF

dc46d26b2027455404828717b1beca5c3f7f97.png Good time to do a CR... and they did!

Chart Data Source: Commsec.

Ora Banda Mining (OBM):

Riverina and Sand King Update.PDF

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Some reasonable gold grades there for OBM - and they've managed to quietly get their market cap up to $553 million now, so they're no so tiny any more.

--- end of announcements ---


Best MoM poddy this week (so far):

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Compare the Pair: Westgold vs Ramelius | Daily Mining Show - YouTube Apr 3, 2024 Daily Mining Show

"Quarterly season has begun! We kick off with diverging reports from Westgold (WGX) and Ramelius (RMS) then move onto Regis (RRL) which disappointed with updated figures from McPhillamy’s."

"Next up we chatted about some speculation from the Director’s Special which is looking on the money, before touching on a slight of hand at Boss Energy (BOE)."

"Our penultimate story was on Develop (DVP) who share revised figures for Woodlawn and lastly we spoke about one of the ASX’s most intriguing companies, ERA."

CHAPTERS

0:00:00 Introduction

0:02:40 Compare the pair! WGX v RMS

0:10:00 Regis disappoints with McPhillamy's numbers

0:25:30 M&A speculation looks on the money

0:30:05 Boss Energy delays first U

0:34:47 Develop dials up metals prices at Woodlawn

0:42:21 One of the ASX's most intriguing co's: ERA

-------------------------------

DISCLAIMER

All Money of Mine episodes are for informational purposes only and may contain forward-looking statements that may not eventuate. The co-hosts are not financial advisers and any views expressed are their opinion only. Please do your own research before making any investment decision or alternatively seek advice from a registered financial professional.

2cb07e841fdcc711c42d2a1acdce65853d83ca.png

7
Bear77
2 months ago

28-March-2024: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/relevance-of-gold-as-a-strategic-asset

The case for a strategic allocation to gold | World Gold Council

2024 Edition.

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Strategic-case-for-gold-2024.pdf


OK, so I prefer to have my exposure to gold through holding shares in companies that own a lot of gold, most of it still underground or in ore stockpiles waiting to be processed.

And I try to be quite picky and choosy about which of the many Aussie Gold sector companies I invest in.

As noted here recently, there has been a LARGE disconnect between the rising gold price and the global gold sector, and particularly the Aussie gold sector, and that is very evident when you look at the following:

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Source: https://goldprice.org/ at 12:30am on Saturday 30th March 2024.

And this table below of YTD (year to date) movements in the markets and Aussie sectors in 2024:

a30814fae650c72b879b0f1a397bee3c46ee73.png

Source: MarcusToday's Saturday ("Marcus Morning Lite") newsletter, usually sent out on Saturdays, but sent out on Friday this week because of the Good Friday public holiday.


Apart from a slight decline in the Telco/Comms sector, the sectors that are still in the red are Resources, Materials, Metals & Mining, and Gold, albeit Gold has performed better than other mining sectors but it's still gone backwards in the first three months of 2024, while the underlying gold price has gone sharply upwards (as shown on the gold price chart above).

Two ways to view that (at least); you can conclude that these red sectors are just foolish places to invest because the returns are going to be sub-par and you're more likely to lose money than make money, or... you could conclude that a positive re-rate might be overdue in those sectors, such as gold, where the underlying commodity price is rising sharply, and has been rising at a good clip for months. I'm leaning towards the second school of thought there, as you might expect; I am, after all, a "goldbug", so take all of this (except the graphs and tables which display factual and correct data) with a grain or three of salt, but I'm thinking that if you get the stockpicking part right (and that's no easy task!) then a decent allocation to some of these better quality underperforming gold producers might prove in time to be a beneficial investment choice. That's my story anyway, and I'm sticking to it!

14

Bear77
a month ago

This is how the Aussie Gold Sector finished the March 2024 Quarter:

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Source: MarcusToday, Note: That table above only shows movements for a single day, the last trading day of March, not for the whole month or the quarter.


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Forum Post on Pantoro (PNR): Click Here.


Thursday's Announcements (28-March-2024):

FireFly Metals (FFM):

Highly-successful-A$52m-raise-to-accelerate-resource-growth-(FireFly-Metals-FFM).PDF

Investor Presentation March 2024.pdf

Regis Resources (RRL):

Amended-Trading-Halt-Notice.PDF (until Wednesday 3rd April 2024, pending the release of an an announcement in relation to the McPhillamys DFS)

Perseus Mining (PRU):

ORR-Supplementary-Target's-Statement.PDF

Tietto Minerals (TIE):

Takeover---extension-of-offer-period-from-Zhaojin-Capital-(Hong-Kong)-for-Tietto-(TIE).PDF

Annual-Report-to-shareholders-(TIE).PDF

Southern Cross Gold (SXG):

SXG-February-2024-Quarterly-Activities-Report-and-Appendix-5B.PDF

---

And this is how the Aussie Gold Sector started off the June Quarter today:

c0de411f14e0c26af626ea9eb87d6f18209fe3.png

Source: MarcusToday, Note: That table above only shows movements for a single day, the first trading day of April.


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Tuesday's Announcements (02-Apr-2024):

Ausgold (AUC):

Settlement-extension-on-acquisition-of-freehold-properties-(Katanning-WA).PDF

Santana Minerals (SMI):

Shiny-Outcomes-from-Latest-Metallurgical-Test-Work-at-RAS.PDF [and the Winner of "announcement title of the day"... is SMI]

Strickland Metals (STK):

Yandal-Project-Exploration-Update.PDF [Click HERE for the "Risks" straw from @edgescape today regarding this announcement]

Gold Road Resources (GOR):

Production-Update-Gruyere-(GOR).PDF [they've had some RAIN in the WA goldfields, especially east of Leonora, Kalgoorlie and Norseman - more on that below these announcements links]

Spartan Resources (SPR):

Craig-Jones-appointed-as-Chief-Operating-Officer-(SPR).PDF

Ten Sixty Four (X64):

X64-Detailed-Restructuring-Documents---Progress-Update.PDF

Southern Cross Gold (SXG):

Trading-Halt-(SXG-Capital-Raising).PDF

Lachlan Star (LSA):

LSA-Investor-Presentation---April-2024.PDF

Regis Resources (RRL):

PRN-Barminco-awarded-$393m-3-year-contract-with-Regis-Res.PDF [note: RRL are in a trading halt from last Thursday through to tomorrow morning - Wednesday 3rd April 2024, pending the release of an an announcement in relation to the McPhillamys DFS]

---

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Source: Production-Update-Gruyere-(GOR).PDF

See also: Truckies forced to take 2,000km detour to supply Ngaanyatjarra communities after flooding - ABC News [19-March-2024]

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Supply trucks usually travel the Great Central Road to deliver goods to communities in the Ngaanyatjarra Lands.(Supplied: Google Maps)

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Truck drivers have been forced to take a huge detour to supply the Ngaanyatjarra Lands.(Supplied: Google Maps)


Tourists unaware of floodwaters

Even though some parts of the Great Central Road have been closed for weeks, Mr Rosenberg said some tourists were oblivious. 

He said a traveller came in from Yulara yesterday who planned on driving to Laverton in a two-wheel-drive vehicle. Mr Rosenberg showed the tourist a photo of a grader bogged down in the mud.

"This bloke was just rocking up in this little Suzuki thing," he said, laughing.

"I was like 'If I was you I'd probably just turn around. You don't want your car becoming a submarine.'"

9adbaee914e6337eca428f03740a28da77308b.png

Nathaniel Rosenberg says he used this photo to dissuade a tourist from driving in the area in a two-wheel drive.(Supplied: Alexander Campbell)


But he said, generally, people were not taking risks, given how expensive and costly it could be to fix cars and get them out of bogs in such an isolated part of the world.

Laverton Shire president Patrick Hill told the ABC on Sunday it would take some time for the road to dry out and open.

"There's a lot of water over the road and it looks pretty grim for a while yet," he said.

--- end of excerpt ---

Yeah, I know... it's not a grader, it's a loader; perhaps they printed the wrong photo, or perhaps the journo doesn't know what a grader looks like...

It's probably the loader they got out to try to pull the grader out that was trying to pull the truck out of the mud...

---

Also: Trans-Australian Railway line reopens after major flooding in Goldfields as supermarket shelves are left bare | The West Australian [30-March-2024]

One Week earlier:

39786e707736ff68d365a5b0a27b2661699c08.png

That's the major east-west (Trans-Australian) Railway, towards the right side of the image above, running under that water.

Source: Floodwaters force east-west rail line to remain closed until Easter Saturday | Kalgoorlie Miner (kalminer.com.au) [23-March-2024]

Also: WA floods affect local supply chains with 2000km detours | PASA (procurementandsupply.com) [25-March-2024]

3e9ea7963ca27d69ea11dea64d87d7dea33c0c.png


Kal copped it earlier in March:

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Source: Electrical storm floods Kalgoorlie-Boulder streets, diverts commercial flight | Kalgoorlie Miner (kalminer.com.au) [06-March-2024]


There was also flooding in the North West of WA in the first half of March:

ab40d235fb0a2d9aa647479326daf0a4189d95.png

Source: Flooded North West won’t impact consumers, supermarkets, Rita Saffioti ensures | The West Australian [12-March-2024]

Here's the current road closures around Laverton:

94e6b1797e4955dcafb11d82d926fa359d3d4a.png

Source: https://www.laverton.wa.gov.au/services/roads/road-condition-reports.aspx

Road Condition Reports » Shire of Laverton

Still no access to Gruyere from the west (Great Central Road closed between Cosmo Newberry and Gruyere).

They say we needed the rain, but probably not that much all at once...

I hold GOR shares in my SMSF. They'll be right. Coupla days...

9

Noddy74
a month ago

I had a wry smile at this quote @Bear77

"This bloke was just rocking up in this little Suzuki thing," he said, laughing.

As it happens I drove a Suzuki Vitara up the Great Central Road back in the nineties - and we were similarly clueless. Drove into Kalgoorlie and I don't remember how, but we found out you needed permits to travel the road. Went to the Post Office (I think) to apply. They were real helpful and said it should only take three weeks to get the permit back. Problem was we had planned to leave in two days! They came through for us and the permits had been faxed (for the millennials - and those who don't still work in the healthcare industry - that's a magical waxed paper transportation device we used before the internet was a thing) and were waiting for us on the morning we were to leave.

The Road itself was a bit of an eye opener. Travelling through the aboriginal communities was educational, to say the least. You can see it on TV as much as you like, but I don't think you get it unless you see it up close.

Unusually we had some rain at one point, and when it rains it really rains. It was absolutely tipping down. Fortunately, they didn't close the road, but it was touch and go there at one point. If they close the road, you're kind of screwed. You can't go forward and you can't go back. They charge huge fines (per axel) if you drive the road while it's wet, due to the damage you can cause.

On that trip we drove from Melbourne to Perth (via the WA south coast - Albany/Esperance etc.), up to Kalgoorlie, via the Great Central Road to Uluru, down to Coober Pedy and Adelaide and then back to Melbourne. I think we racked up about 13,000 kms and we did it in about three weeks. Good times.

12

Bear77
a month ago

Sounds like a great road trip @Noddy74 - I do like a good road trip, but I haven't done the Great Central Road yet, except the small sealed bit at the east end between Uluru and Kata Tjuta ("The Olgas"). That was in a large (6 berth) motorhome about 12 years ago, and we mostly stayed on the hard stuff on that trip. The first time I went to Coober Pedy, about 25 years ago, I enjoyed it, especially eating in underground restaurants - everything is in man-made limestone caves there or structures dug into the ground to escape the outside heat - but the second time we stayed there was in a caravan park, and we upped and left after one night - spent the extra night up at The Rock where the facilities at the Ayers Rock Campground (part of the Ayers Rock Resort) were far superior. Then Kings Canyon after that, then the long way 'round to Alice (on the bitumen) - I wasn't going to take one of those 4WD shortcuts in a rented 6-berth motorhome.

I didn't mind "The Alice" either however we did spend most days travelling through the West MacDonnell Ranges/National Park, returning at night to sleep in Alice. Some spectacular scenery around there!

94f6ce3ea1e82dc663b2b72c85298b398845c4.png

5bfd5c3a879c80c9ecee21a085dee393729559.png

2644216a6808e2bc9561574ad015c24a8ab879.png

Anyway, back to gold... Regis (RRL) emerged from their trading halt this morning with an announcement that McPhillamys’ capex will be ~60% higher than analyst estimates - and their SP only fell -8 cents (or -3.97%, call it -4%) to $1.935. They were trading briefly at over $2.40 this time last year, and they've subsequently been down below $1.50/share in late September, so they're around the middle of that 12 month trading range. See: McPhillamys-Gold-Project-Definitive-Feasibility-Study-Update.PDF.

I don't think the upside that should come with McPhillamys is fully priced in with Regis, so the market wasn't too phased with this news. There is a degree of scepticism that McPhillamys is going to get built at all.

Upside is they now have a DFS for their next big growth project. Downside is the costs have blown out, but I expected that, and it looks like I wasn't Robinson Crusoe there.

If you haven't signed up for the Money of Mine daily newsletter, called "Director's Special", then "do yourself a favour" and check it out: Ramelius Soars while Westgold Wanes (moneyofmine.com)

"Director's Special" Sample:

The Pre-Start

  • Regis emerged from a two-day trading halt signalling McPhillamys’ capex will be ~60% higher than analyst estimates (RRL)
  • Ramelius printed $125m in March Qtr, exceeding quarterly guidance by 13koz. Cash & gold now at $407m and stock up 10% (RMS)
  • Westgold lowers FY24 guidance from 245-265koz to 220–230koz. AISC guidance up $300/oz. Delaying Great Fingall restart till Q3 FY25 (drilling?). Only added $9m and stock is down 14% (WGX)
  • Develop considering selling a minority stake in Woodlawn Cu/Zn mine to “recycle capital” (DVP)
  • Rio Tinto will now manage the rehabilitation of ERA’s Ranger Uranium Project under a services agreement (ERA)

8496cbb13dce3fa00b14d04a5c01cc39e4c0c1.png

ERA’s Ranger Mine in the NT

High Grade It

  • Min Res’ plans for its proposed 250TJ Lockyer Gas Project have emerged within its EPA application (The West Australian- Interesting that Stokes’ publication is supporting the lobbying noting BPT has an exemption!
  • Gold Valley’s iron ore project, Wiluna West, is facing closure if iron ore prices fall below US$100 per tonne (The West Australian)
  • Fortescue let the deadline to buy green energy for its stalled Gibson Island hydrogen plant lapse (The Australian)
  • Gold shatters new records with tensions in the mid-east adding to the precious metal’s bull case (Reuters)
  • Goldman SachsJP Morgan & ANZ amongst sell-side advisers telling their clients that gold is in for a bullish year (AFR)
  • The Biden Administration continues its renewables push by approving the USA’s eighth commercial-scale offshore wind project (Reuters)
  • Russia’s 3rd largest oil refinery has been hit by a Ukrainian drone. The core unit which has been hit refines 340,000bpd of crude (Reuters)
  • New York-listed Gold Fields achieved first production at Salares Norte gold mine in Chile, taking 13 years from exploration to production (Mining.com)

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Salares Norte in the Chilean Andes

  • Traditional owners of south-west Victoria have released a statement indicating they’ve not been adequately consulted on offshore wind projects (The Australian)
  • Morgan Stanley has told clients the recent era of bumper dividends may be behind us, forecasting dividend payout ratios to fall (AFR)
  • The EU has exited winter with record gas storage levels after another mild season. Feb demand was roughly one-fifth lower than 2019-21 (FT)
  • Deutsche Bank added to the pool of advisers forecasting that Glencore will leave the LSE, tipping New York as its new home (Mining.com)


Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Whitehaven Coal has completed the $6.4b acquisition of Queensland coal mines Blackwater & Daunia from BHP (The Australian)
  • FIRB has requested an extension to 30 April to approve SQM and Hancock’s acquisition of Azure Minerals (AZS)


Rattlin’ the Tin

  • After spending several days in a trading halt, Regis Resources came out with a relatively benign announcement on McPhillamys this morning. Were they looking to raise money concurrently before today? ????(RRL)
  • Encounter Resources in trading halt pending a capital raise (ENR)


Word on the Decline

  • Yesterday Winsome Resources entered a trading halt pending an announced deal. We are led to believe the transaction is likely to involve the Renard Diamond Mine - a permitted operation 100-150kms from Winsome’s Adina. The operation is in care-and-maintenance currently and a road is required to be built from Renard to Adina for Adina’s logistics to be unlocked.
  • Time to throw another name in the mix as Karora’s potential new suitor - Agnico Eagle. By now you should know that we are throwing darts, right?


In the Weeds

  • Gulf States continue to diversify their fossil fuel wealth into mining assets, with African assets being a major focus. Deals for Zambian copper assets Mopani and Lubambe are the most recent examples of the Middle East’s financial capabilities. Will competition to China’s dominance be beneficial? (FT)

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Gulf Nations looking to gain a foothold in mining

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--- "do yourself a favour" --- Money of Mine https://www.moneyofmine.com/subscribe

Disclosure: I am a subscriber, but otherwise have no connection to "Money of Mine"; I'm just a fan of their work. Great source of free daily information on what's really going on in Australian Mining, particularly at the small end and with mid-sized companies. And they seem to have a strong focus on gold, and that works for me!

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First gold pour at Salares Norte. (Image courtesy of Gold Fields.)

Source: https://www.mining.com/gold-fields-begins-gold-production-at-new-chilean-mine/

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Bear77
3 weeks ago

23-April-2024: My son and I have just returned from a few days in Coober Pedy - I thought I'd give the town another go - and the experience was a lot better than last time - due to superior accomodation mostly - staying in an underground apartment with 1m thick walls - it was only mid to high twenties outside but apparently these underground homes stay the same temp all year 'round.

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We went for a drive out along the dog fence on Sunday - probably the longest fence in the world - it stretches 5,614 kilometres from Jimbour on the Darling Downs near Dalby in Qld through thousands of kilometres of arid land and desert ending west of Eyre peninsula on cliffs of the Nullarbor Plain above the Great Australian Bight near Nundroo (SA).

We only drove a small section of it. The trip was mostly to give my son some hours on his "L" plates.

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The "Breakaways" was a highlight.

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We passed Prominent Hill on the way up on Saturday - was OZ Minerals, now BHP, copper mostly, plus silver and gold.  Busy enough with road trains of ore passing under the Stuart Highway on their haul roads.

Usually when I'm away and not looking at the markets something positive happens, like a takeover offer for one of my positions. Not this time. Not long enough clearly. S32's report was OK yesterday (S32 +5.6%), but gold didn't have a good day...

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And today's looking even worse for gold...

Except for Saturn Metals, which is up by over +14% today so far, on no news. Somebody is buying STM shares... I almost bought them here in my Strawman.com portfolio a couple of weeks ago for a trade, and they got away from me and I thought I'd missed the low point, but they just keep rising. Very high risk, as they are an explorer and project developer whose main project, Apollo Hill, has a LOT of gold, but all relatively low grade, although open pit, close to surface, easy enough to get at, and reasonably close to Gwalia/Leonora also. So no income, and will live from CR to CR, or die if they can't raise more capital. Or get taken over. So high potential reward, but also high risk of either going to zero or getting diluted to close to zero.

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Source: Commsec, just prior to the CSPA, final closing volume (after the CSPA) was 447,143 shares, 65 Trades for a total value of just under $103K.

So big move on smallish volume in dollar value terms.

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Parko5
3 weeks ago

Great work @Bear77

Can you detour to Nolans and let me know the current progress of ARU? haha ;-)


7

Bear77
3 weeks ago

Back in Adelaide now @Parko5 - but it probably looks a little like this:

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Or it did around this time last year I reckon. Source: https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2023/03/30/a-billion-reasons-to-support-arafura-rare-earths/

Which is a bit better than this:

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Source: Arafura Rare Earths looks offshore to fund its $1.6billion Nolan rare earths project in the Northern Territory because local banks find critical minerals miners ‘outside their comfort zone’ (afr.com)

But I'm guessing that first image was the accomodation village?

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Or is it the processing site?

It was a little further North than where we went:

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6

Bear77
3 weeks ago

This image below would not upload so I've tried shrinking it and changing the file format...

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OK, that worked - if anyone ever has a .jpg (jpeg) file that won't upload here, change it to a .png file (Portable Network Graphic, a type of raster image file) which I did using MS Paint 3D, and it uploads. Or that one did anyway.

Further info on the Kanku-Breakaways CP: https://www.parks.sa.gov.au/parks/kanku-breakaways-conservation-park

Plenty of colour from brilliant white to deep red. I really like the Breakaways, and it was not a big drive from our Coober Pedy base - we headed up Kempe road, then NW along the dog fence, then through the Breakaways CP then back to the Stuart Highway, so a good loop, all done in about 90 mins, and while over half of it was unsealed, and there was evidence of recent rain, there was no water on the road or much damage.

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11

Bear77
3 weeks ago

Yeah - another poor day across the gold sector:

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With only 3 in the green of all the ones on my watchlist; STN (who I mentioned earlier) closed up +14.29% as the buying continues, which is hard to do without moving the share price with an illiquid $47m microcap that was worth about $20m less than that a couple of months ago when they were trading at 13 to 14 cps (now 24 cps). GOR and TBR were also in the green, with everyone else across the gold sector either unmoved or down (most were down).

IR1 (Iris Metals) was the only one down by double digits (-11.39%) but I'll likely remove them from that watchlist shortly because they are focused on lithium now and they announced 8 days ago that they had sold their Kookynie Gold Project to Nex Metals Explorations Limited (NME.asx) for 54,054,433 new fully paid ordinary shares in NME, plus a 2% Net Smelter Return (NSR) royalty on any gold they produce in the future.

See here: IR1-Sale-of-Kookynie-Gold-Project.PDF and NME-Nex-Acquires-Additional-Ground-at-Kookynie.PDF [both 15-April-2024]

Apart from IR1 (-11.39%), there were another 6 goldies down by over 5% today - OBM, EMR, KIN, SPR, SBM & CMM - however they're all still up for the 2024 calendar year, with most just coming down off really good recent high points - OBM made a new 3 year high on April 18th, and then tagged the same high today (of 35 cps) before closing down -9% at 30 cps, SBM have more than doubled from 14 cps to just over 30 cps in around 6 weeks (high point was last Friday), EMR are coming off a new 20-year high of $3.81 (in intraday trading last Thursday), KIN hit a year high of 8.8 cps intraday on the 10th April and a 12 month closing high of 8.5 cps on the following day (11th April), SPR hit a new 5-year high of 68 cps early this month, and Capricorn (CMM) made a new all-time intraday high of $5.55/share and a new all-time high closing share price of $5.50/share in the first week of April. So... swings and roundabouts...

4
Bear77
2 months ago

Thursday 21st March 2024: The Aussie gold sector rollercoaster continues:

Down Yesterday:

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Up Today:

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The overall trend is up for a good number of these goldies however:

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Announcements:

FireFly Metals (FFM, formerly AuTeco Minerals):

More-wide-zones-grading-4-Copper-at-Green-Bay-Project.PDF [21-Mar-2024]

Also, recently: Board-Changes.PDF [19-Mar-2024]

Resolute Mining (RSG):

Director-Changes.PDF [21-Mar-2024]

Emerald Resources (EMR):

Third-Supplementary-Bidder's-Statement.PDF [20-Mar-2024, 7:16pm]

Spartan Resources (SPR, formerly Gascoyne Resources):

Response-to-ASX-Query-(SPR).PDF [21-Mar-2024]

And: Board-changes (SPR).PDF [21-Mar-2024]

Also, recently: More-strong-drill-hits-across-key-prospects.PDF [20-Mar-2024]

Genesis Minerals (GMD):

Five-year Strategic Plan [68 pages, 21-Mar-2024, 5:09pm]

And: Growth strategy underpinned by robust Reserves [370 pages, 21-Mar-2024, 5:02pm]

Predictive Discovery (PDI):

PFS-Update.PDF

--- --- ---

Today's MoM poddy:

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RPcQEn8yMc

The Report that Shaved $250 Million from IGO Today | Daily Mining Show - YouTube

Get amongst it!

"We’ve got a big one Money Miners."

"We started the show by dissecting a bearish report written on IGO, before discussing the latest news from Develop (DVP)."

"Next, we pulled apart Sierra Rutile (SRX) in one of the year’s most fascinating M&A stories, then moving to another M&A story that is drawing to a close, we spoke about the Battle for Nyanzaga (ORR, PRU, SVM.t)."

"Meteoric (MEI) & Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) both received non-binding hand outs from the US Export-Import Bank which was worth a chat, before we flew through announcements at Spartan (SPR), Calidus (CAI), Firefly (FFM) and lastly Global Lithium (GL1)."

CHAPTERS

0:00:00 Introduction

0:00:38 More pain to come for IGO?

0:15:47 Develop announce Karora deal

0:23:41 The years most fascinating M&A deal (SRX)

0:34:48 The Battle for Nyanzaga is almost done (ORR, PRU, SVM.t)

0:36:30 MEI & ASM get big government boost

0:40:24 Why the board changes at Spartan?

0:47:11 Calidus rattle the tin

0:52:34 Firefly's copper equivalents

0:53:35 Global Lithium find drill results

-------------------------------

DISCLAIMER

All Money of Mine episodes are for informational purposes only and may contain forward-looking statements that may not eventuate. The co-hosts are not financial advisers and any views expressed are their opinion only. Please do your own research before making any investment decision or alternatively seek advice from a registered financial professional.

-------------------------------

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Five-year Strategic Plan

Growth strategy underpinned by robust Reserves

Because their two price-sensitive announcements were both releassed after 5pm this arvo, the market will get to react to those tomorrow morning.

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I have posted a straw about this presentation here. [You will likely have to scroll down past my GMD "valuation" to reach that straw if you use that link.]

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Disclosure: I hold GMD shares.

11